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光学天文时纬残差异常在强震预测中的实践——纪念唐山地震暨光学天文时纬残差异常发现40周年
Alternative TitlePractice of Anomalies of Optical Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Strong Earthquake Prediction
胡辉1; 李语强1; 苏有锦2; 尹志强3; 韩延本3; 王锐1; 王博3
Source Publication天文研究与技术(Astronomical Research & Technology)
2017-07
Volume14Issue:3Pages:401-406
DOI10.14005/j.cnki.issn1672-7673.20161108.002
Contribution Rank第1完成单位
Indexed ByCSCD
Keyword光学天文时纬残差 铅垂线变化 地下物质运动 地震
Abstract

为了进一步研究光学天文时纬残差异常在地震预测中的实际运用,本文介绍了光学天文时纬残差震前异常的发现和它在地震预测中的研究实践,以及云南天文台光电等高仪的时纬残差异常变化与其周邻强震的实际对应关系,最后以讨论的形式给出了这种关联的可能的地球物理机制,目前在地震预测中的局限性和可能的解决途径。重要的是,2010 年以来的预测实践进一步表明,利用光学天文时纬残差的同步异常提供地震预测信息,既没有虚报,也没有漏报。这就说明,它是完全可以作为地震预测的一种手段,投入地震预测实践中的,值得更多重视和更加深入的研究。

Other Abstract

To investigate the practical application of the anomalies of optical astronomic time-latitude residuals in earthquake prediction, the article introduces the discovery of the anomalies of optical astronomic time-latitude residuals before earthquake, its research practice in earthquake prediction, and the actual relation between the anomalies of the time-latitude residuals of photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory and the strong earthquakes around it, and finally discusses its possible geophysical mechanism, current limitations in earthquake prediction and possible solution methods. The forecasting practice since 2010 especially shows that neither does it generate false forecasts, nor miss forecasts of major earthquakes. This indicates that it is can be used as a means of earthquake prediction, into practice of earthquake prediction, such work requires more attention and further study.

Funding Project中国科技部攻关项目[2012BAK19B01-07]
Funding Organization中国科技部攻关项目[2012BAK19B01-07]
Language中文
Subject Area天文学 ; 天文学其他学科 ; 地球科学 ; 固体地球物理学 ; 地震学
MOST Discipline Catalogue理学 ; 理学::天文学 ; 理学::地球物理学
ISSN1672-7673
CSCD IDCSCD:6020220
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/9948
Collection其他
Affiliation1.中国科学院云南天文台,昆明,650011
2.云南省地震局,昆明,650224
3.中国科学院国家天文台,北京,100012
First Author AffilicationYunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
胡辉,李语强,苏有锦,等. 光学天文时纬残差异常在强震预测中的实践——纪念唐山地震暨光学天文时纬残差异常发现40周年[J]. 天文研究与技术(Astronomical Research & Technology),2017,14(3):401-406.
APA 胡辉.,李语强.,苏有锦.,尹志强.,韩延本.,...&王博.(2017).光学天文时纬残差异常在强震预测中的实践——纪念唐山地震暨光学天文时纬残差异常发现40周年.天文研究与技术(Astronomical Research & Technology),14(3),401-406.
MLA 胡辉,et al."光学天文时纬残差异常在强震预测中的实践——纪念唐山地震暨光学天文时纬残差异常发现40周年".天文研究与技术(Astronomical Research & Technology) 14.3(2017):401-406.
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