YNAO OpenIR  > 太阳物理研究组
太阳活动及其预报方法研究
穆军
Subtype博士
Thesis Advisor李可军 ; 王劲松
2010-06-07
Degree Grantor中国科学院研究生院(云南天文台)
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline天体物理
Keyword太阳 太阳活动 质子事件预报
Abstract本文简要地论述了不同时间和空间尺度的各种太阳活动的规律和预报方法。包括太阳活动及其规律、太阳活动预报研究、太阳高纬的长期活动特征研究和典型的太阳质子事件峰值流量的一种预报方法。具体内容如下: 第一部分是调研部分,对不同时间尺度的太阳活动及其预报方法进行了详细的介绍,包括第一章和第二章共两章内容。 第一章介绍了爆发型及短期、中期和长期太阳活动及其规律,并对太阳耀斑、日面物质抛射、太阳质子事件、日珥和太阳黑子等主要的太阳活动现象及其活动规律进行了重点的介绍。 第二章介绍了不同时间尺度太阳活动预报方法研究方面的内容,包括爆发型和短期太阳活动预报和警报,中期太阳活动预报和长期太阳活动预报的现有预报方法和目前国内外的现有预报能力。 第二部分是本人的研究工作部分,包括第三章和第四章共两章内容。 第三章介绍了本人参与的关于太阳高纬的长期活动特征研究的工作,发现了存在于太阳高纬的有趣的长期活动特征:(1)同时存在于高纬的相位相反的两个周期性行为: 在60~70度的纬度范围内以高斯为单位的磁场的视向分量,可能代表了高纬度地区太阳磁活动的振幅,这与通常是由太阳黑子数表示中低纬度的太阳活动周期完全反相。然而,在60~90度的纬度范围内可能代表高纬度地区的复杂的太阳磁场活动的暗条数,却奇怪的与磁通量的位相完全相反。(2)两种纬度迁移,在一个周期内存在的彼此相对的反方向漂移,一个是太阳活动周是上半周是中纬度地区向太阳两极的极向迁移,下半周则是从太阳两极到中纬度赤道地区的赤道迁移。(3)可以推出,极区光斑与高纬太阳磁活动的幅度的相关性比太阳磁活动复杂性的相关性更大。并且,它们与磁通量的位相相同。(4)在高纬度地区的一种剧烈活动现象是高纬度耀斑,其幅度既不与高纬度的太阳磁活动的幅度一致,也不与其复杂性一致,他们似乎就发生在双方都在极大值附近的时候。 第四章是关于典型的太阳质子事件峰值流量的一种预报方法的研究工作。我们分析了1988~2006年中62个典型的太阳质子事件,发现其归一化后峰值流量变化具有很好的统计规律,根据该规律提出了一种对太阳质子事件峰值流量进行预报的方法。试验预报结果表明,太阳质子事件峰值流量的预报值和实测值都在同一个量级以内,平均相对误差为32%,预报误差在可接受范围内,对于日常预报业务而言是实用和可行的。
Other AbstractThis paper reviews the different scales of time and spatial for various solar activities and its Prediction Methods. Including solar activities and its rules, the study of prediction method for solar activity, on long-term solar activity at high latitudes and a method for predicting the maximum flux of solar proton event. Details are as follows: The first part is the review section, including two chapters: chapter one and chapter two. The first chapter introduced the solar activity and its rules and laws, including the short-term solar activity, the medium-term solar activity, long-term solar activity. And also details the main activities’ regulation including solar flares, the coronal mass ejections, solar proton events, prominence and sunspots and other phenomenon of solar activity The second chapter describes the different time scales of solar activity forecasting aspects, including the short-term forecasts and warnings of solar activity, medium-term solar activity forecasting and long-term solar activity prediction and their current forecasting methods and forecasting capabilities available. The second part is my research work, including two chapters: chapter three and chapter four. The third chapter is my participation of the research work on long-term solar activity at high latitudes. The interesting characteristics of long-term solar activity at high latitudes are reported as follows. (1) Two cyclic behaviours, but in anti-phase with each other, simultaneously exist at high latitudes: the magnetic fluxes in units of gauss of the line-of-sight magnetic fields at latitudes of 60–70, possibly representing the amplitude of solar magnetic activity at high latitudes, are in complete anti-phase with the solar activity at middle and low latitudes, usually represented by sunspot numbers. However, the numbers of filaments at latitudes of 60–90, possibly representing the complexity of solar magnetic activity at high latitudes, are strangely in complete anti-phase with the magnetic fluxes. (2) Two latitude migrations, but in opposite drift directions relative to each other, exist in a cycle: a poleward migration drifts from the middle latitudes toward the solar poles in the first half of a normal cycle, following an equatorward migration found from the solar poles towards the middle latitudes in the other half of the normal cycle. (3) It is inferred that polar faculae, a frequently observed phenomenon at high latitudes, are more related to the amplitude than to the complexity of solar magnetic activity at high latitudes, and they are in phase with the magnetic fluxes. (4) High-latitude flares, a violent active phenomenon at high latitudes, keep in step with neither the amplitude nor the complexity of solar magnetic activity at high latitudes; they seemingly occur just around the maximum times of both. The forth chapter is about of a method for predicting the maximum flux of a typical solar proton event. Sixty-two typical solar proton events during 1988-2006 are analyzed. It is found that the top flux figure change has good statistic regulation after the data is unitary. A method for predicting the top flux of solar proton event is put forward. All the events are predicted for the top flux. The result of the examination indicates: the predicted values and observed values are in the same dimension, and the relative standard deviation is ±32%. The error level is acceptable and reliable to daily monitoring mission of space weather.
Subject Area天文学
Pages65
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6608
Collection太阳物理研究组
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
穆军. 太阳活动及其预报方法研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院(云南天文台),2010.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
太阳活动及其预报方法研究.pdf(624KB)学位论文 开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Application Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[穆军]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[穆军]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[穆军]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: 太阳活动及其预报方法研究.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.