YNAO OpenIR  > 太阳物理研究组
Thesis Advisor黄润乾 ; 方成
Degree Grantor中国科学院云南天文台
Place of Conferral昆明
Degree Discipline太阳物理
Keyword太阳活动 太阳长期活动预报 黑子群
Abstract黑子相对数与黑子群在日面纬度上分布的蝴碟图表征着太阳长期活动演化的特征,本文主要对这二者尤其是后者进行了研究。太阳活动在日面上分布表现为不对称,这是近三十年太阳物理研究的主要内容之一。本文对这一领域进行了详细调研,发现太阳活动的南北半球分布不对称性的确存在,是否存在东西半球分布不对称性目前还没有定论,但在日面经度上的分布肯定是不均匀的。本文还利用太阳22周活动极大时期X射线(Imp ≥ M1.0)耀斑事件进行了统计分析,给出了不对称演化特征,发现不对称性并不是事件活动剧烈程度的函数。统计分析表现21周太阳活动既不是已往文献中所述的南半球占优,也不是北半球占优。本文总结了以往对太阳长期活动特征研究的结论,也分析了黑子面积描述的活动周特征,发现可用一个二参数函数来描述太阳活动周,这个结论对太阳长期活动预报是有用的。本文还详细解剖了蝴蝶图,揭示了其所含的物理信息,同时将不对称研究引入到这种解剖工作中,或是定量再现已有一些定律,一些效应,或是揭示一些新的长期活动特征。本文最后对太阳长期活动预报方法和预报结论进行了总结,21-23周的预报事例说明前兆因子方法比其它方法要好。本文用Moscow中子监测值对23周作了预报,其峰值为151.1(月平均黑子相对数),对23周事例的总结分析表明其峰值为162.3。
Other AbstractEvolutional characteristics of longterm solar activity are usually shown with the sunspot relative number and the Butterfly Diagram of sunspot groups' distribution in the latitude. In this paper the both are studied, and the latter in especial. Solar activity indicators do not occur evenly on the solar disk, many types of solar phenomena exhibit some north-south asymmetric distributions. Study on this aspect is one of the main research tasks of solar physics since about the 1970s, and it is found that the N-S asymmetric distribution of solar activity does indeed exist, although the existence of the west-east asymmetric distribution has not yet confirmed up to now. Solar activity indicators are not uniformly distributed in the longitude. The data of the X-ray flare events of Imp ≥ M1.0 during the interval of the year 1987 to 1992 corresponding to the maximum period of the 22~(nd) solar cycle have been investigated to study the N-S and W-E asymmetries. During that period it has been shown the existence of a real N-S asymmetry. The W-E asymmetry during that period is not significant, but a non-uniform flare distribution in the longitude has been evidenced. It is also found that the degree of N-S asymmetry is not a function of the intensity of the studied events. The other work done on this aspect is the attempt to clarify whether the southern dominance of solar activity really exists in solar cycle 21. 20 solar-activity phenomena are collected to investigate solar activity in solar cycle 21, and the results obtained show that we can hardly say that either the south dominance of solar activity or the north dominance exists for solar cycle 21. A briefly investigation of the research situation of longterm solar activity has been given, and an analysis on the characteristics of the solar cycles described by sunspot areas has been also given here. It is found that a single function containing only two parameters can be used to represent the temporal behavior of the sunspot cycles 12 to 22, this result is very useful in predictions of longterm solar activity. The Butterfly Diagram has been detailed studied to show or to discover some characteristics of longterm solar activity, to quantitatively reproduce some existed rules and effects on longterm solar activity. At the end of this dissertation, we summarize both the prediction methods and the prediction results of longterm solar activity. The prediction cases given for solar cycles 21 to 23 indicate that the precursor methods are obviously more successful than other methods. The Moscow Neutron Monitor Pressure-Corrected Values have been used to do a prediction of the maximum sunspot relative number for solar cycle 23, and here we predict that the maximum sunspot relative number is about 151.1 (in terms of smoothed monthly mean). The investigations of predictions of the maximum sunspot relative number show that the maximum is probably about 162.3 in terms of smoothed monthly mean.
Subject Area天文学
Document Type学位论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
李可军. 太阳整体行为研究[D]. 昆明. 中国科学院云南天文台,2000.
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