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Low dimensional chaos from the group sunspot numbers
Li QX(李启秀)1,2; Li KJ(李可军)1; Li, QX (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
Source PublicationCHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
2007
Volume7Issue:3Pages:435-440
DOI10.1088/1009-9271/7/3/14
Contribution Rank第1完成单位
Indexed BySCI
KeywordSun : Activity Sun : Sunspot Chaos Sun : Wolf Sunspot Numbers
AbstractWe examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number R-g and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of R-g, is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear; study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent (MLE) for the R-g series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 +/- 0.0023 (month(-1)). Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 +/- 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from R-z. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be,done only for,a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.
Language英语
Subject AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
SubtypeArticle
ISSN1009-9271
URL查看原文
Archive Date2007-06-22
WOS IDWOS:000247553300014
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS KeywordSOLAR-ACTIVITY RECONSTRUCTION ; TIME-SERIES ; LYAPUNOV EXPONENTS ; CYCLE
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6112
Collection太阳物理研究组
Corresponding AuthorLi, QX (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
Affiliation1.National Astronomical Observatories / Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011
2.Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
First Author AffilicationYunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li QX,Li KJ,Li, QX . Low dimensional chaos from the group sunspot numbers[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,2007,7(3):435-440.
APA Li QX,Li KJ,&Li, QX .(2007).Low dimensional chaos from the group sunspot numbers.CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,7(3),435-440.
MLA Li QX,et al."Low dimensional chaos from the group sunspot numbers".CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 7.3(2007):435-440.
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