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Estimating the size and timing of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24
Li KJ(李可军)1; Gao PX(高朋鑫)1,2; Su TW(苏同卫)1,2; Li, KJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
Source PublicationCHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
2005
Volume5Issue:5Pages:539-545
DOI10.1088/1009-9271/5/5/011
Contribution Rank第1完成单位
Indexed BySCI
KeywordSun : Activity Sun : Sunspot Sun : Prediction
AbstractA simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle (cycle 24). Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle (as is more likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 ( +/- 2 months) and the maximum, around March 2011 ( +/- 9 months), and the, amplitude is 189.9 +/- 15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. It we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle. (as is less likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 ( +/- 2 months) and the maximum, about February 2013 ( 8 months) and the maximum will be about. 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.
Language英语
Subject AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
SubtypeArticle
ISSN1009-9271
URL查看原文
Archive Date2005-11-23
WOS IDWOS:000232872000011
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS KeywordSUNSPOT CYCLE ; PREDICTION ; MINIMUM ; SOLAR-CYCLE-24 ; BEHAVIOR
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Cited Times:23[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6079
Collection太阳物理研究组
Corresponding AuthorLi, KJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
Affiliation1.National Astronomical Observatories, Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011
2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
First Author AffilicationYunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li KJ,Gao PX,Su TW,et al. Estimating the size and timing of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,2005,5(5):539-545.
APA Li KJ,Gao PX,Su TW,&Li, KJ .(2005).Estimating the size and timing of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24.CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,5(5),539-545.
MLA Li KJ,et al."Estimating the size and timing of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24".CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 5.5(2005):539-545.
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