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Estimating the size and timing of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24
Li KJ(李可军)1; Gao PX(高朋鑫)1,2; Su TW(苏同卫)1,2; Li, KJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
发表期刊CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
2005
卷号5期号:5页码:539-545
DOI10.1088/1009-9271/5/5/011
产权排序第1完成单位
收录类别SCI
关键词Sun : Activity Sun : Sunspot Sun : Prediction
摘要A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle (cycle 24). Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle (as is more likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 ( +/- 2 months) and the maximum, around March 2011 ( +/- 9 months), and the, amplitude is 189.9 +/- 15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. It we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle. (as is less likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 ( +/- 2 months) and the maximum, about February 2013 ( 8 months) and the maximum will be about. 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.
语种英语
学科领域Astronomy & Astrophysics
文章类型Article
ISSN1009-9271
URL查看原文
归档日期2005-11-23
WOS记录号WOS:000232872000011
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
WOS类目Astronomy & Astrophysics
关键词[WOS]SUNSPOT CYCLE ; PREDICTION ; MINIMUM ; SOLAR-CYCLE-24 ; BEHAVIOR
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被引频次:22[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6079
专题太阳物理研究组
通讯作者Li, KJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
作者单位1.National Astronomical Observatories, Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011
2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
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Li KJ,Gao PX,Su TW,et al. Estimating the size and timing of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,2005,5(5):539-545.
APA Li KJ,Gao PX,Su TW,&Li, KJ .(2005).Estimating the size and timing of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24.CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,5(5),539-545.
MLA Li KJ,et al."Estimating the size and timing of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24".CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 5.5(2005):539-545.
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