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The shape of sunspot cycles described by monthly sunspot areas
Zhan LS(占腊生)1,2; Guo, L1; Zhao, HJ3; Hu, LM4; Zhan, LS (reprint author), Jingdezhen Ceram Inst, Jingdezhen 333001, Peoples R China.
发表期刊SOLAR PHYSICS
2005-12
卷号232期号:1-2页码:143-158
产权排序第2完成单位
收录类别SCI
摘要In this paper, we used the same four-parameter function as Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann (1994) proposed and studied the temporal behavior of sunspot cycles 12-22. We used the monthly averages Of Sunspot areas and their 13-point smoothed data. Our results show the following. (1) The four-parameter function may reduce to a function of only two parameters. (2) As a cycle progresses, the two-parameter function can be accurately determined after 4-4.5 years from the start of the cycle. A good prediction can be made for the timing and size of the Sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 5-10 years of the cycle. (3) The solar activity in the remaining and forthcoming years of cycle 23 is predicted. (4) The smoothed monthly Sunspot areas are more suitable to be employed for prediction at the maximum and the descending period of a cycle, whereas at the early period of a cycle the (un-smoothed) monthly data are more suitable.
语种英语
学科领域Astronomy & Astrophysics
文章类型Article
ISSN0038-0938
URL查看原文
WOS记录号WOS:000234920400008
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
WOS类目Astronomy & Astrophysics
关键词[WOS]LONG-TERM PREDICTION ; NUMBER TIME-SERIES ; SOLAR-ACTIVITY ; SIZE
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被引频次:2[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6072
专题太阳物理研究组
通讯作者Zhan, LS (reprint author), Jingdezhen Ceram Inst, Jingdezhen 333001, Peoples R China.
作者单位1.Jingdezhen Ceramic Institute, Jingdezhen, 333001, P.R. China
2.National Astronomical Observatories/Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, P.R. China
3.National Satellite Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, P.R. China
4.Nanjing Engineering Technology Institute, Nanjing, P.R. China
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GB/T 7714
Zhan LS,Guo, L,Zhao, HJ,et al. The shape of sunspot cycles described by monthly sunspot areas[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2005,232(1-2):143-158.
APA Zhan LS,Guo, L,Zhao, HJ,Hu, LM,&Zhan, LS .(2005).The shape of sunspot cycles described by monthly sunspot areas.SOLAR PHYSICS,232(1-2),143-158.
MLA Zhan LS,et al."The shape of sunspot cycles described by monthly sunspot areas".SOLAR PHYSICS 232.1-2(2005):143-158.
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