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Prediction of sunspot numbers in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23
Zhan LS(占腊生)1,2,3,4; Zhao HJ(赵海娟)1,2; Liang HF(梁红飞)1,2; Zhan, LS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
发表期刊NEW ASTRONOMY
2003-07
卷号8期号:5页码:449-456
DOI10.1016/S1384-1076(02)00230-0
产权排序第1完成单位
收录类别SCI ; EI
关键词Sun : Activity Sunspots Sun : General
摘要The method proposed by Hathaway et al. [SoPh 151 (1994) 177] was employed to predict the magnitude of sunspot activities in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23, based on the monthly averages of sunspot number and the smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number, respectively. Our results show that: (1) the application of smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number gives better and less fluctuating (or more stable) predictions of sunspot activity at the early stage of the cycle than predictions based on monthly averages of sunspot number, and (2) a starting date of October 1996 works better than a starting date of May 1996 for Cycle 23. Both the validity and advantage of Hathaway et al.'s [SoPh 151 (1994) 177] approach are discussed in detail. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
语种英语
学科领域Astronomy & Astrophysics
文章类型Article
ISSN1384-1092
URL查看原文
归档日期2003-09-08
WOS记录号WOS:000184662500007
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
WOS类目Astronomy & Astrophysics
关键词[WOS]LONG-TERM PREDICTION ; SOLAR-ACTIVITY ; TIME-SERIES ; CYCLE ; SIZE ; AMPLITUDE ; ASYMMETRY ; SHAPE
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6064
专题太阳物理研究组
通讯作者Zhan, LS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
作者单位1.Yunnan Observatory, CAS, Kunming 650011, PR China
2.National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, Beijing, China
3.School of Graduates, CAS, Beijing, China
4.Jingdezhen Comprehensive College, Jiangxi, China
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GB/T 7714
Zhan LS,Zhao HJ,Liang HF,et al. Prediction of sunspot numbers in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23[J]. NEW ASTRONOMY,2003,8(5):449-456.
APA Zhan LS,Zhao HJ,Liang HF,&Zhan, LS .(2003).Prediction of sunspot numbers in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23.NEW ASTRONOMY,8(5),449-456.
MLA Zhan LS,et al."Prediction of sunspot numbers in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23".NEW ASTRONOMY 8.5(2003):449-456.
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