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Prediction of sunspot numbers in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23
Zhan LS(占腊生)1,2,3,4; Zhao HJ(赵海娟)1,2; Liang HF(梁红飞)1,2; Zhan, LS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
Source PublicationNEW ASTRONOMY
2003-07
Volume8Issue:5Pages:449-456
DOI10.1016/S1384-1076(02)00230-0
Contribution Rank第1完成单位
Indexed BySCI ; EI
KeywordSun : Activity Sunspots Sun : General
AbstractThe method proposed by Hathaway et al. [SoPh 151 (1994) 177] was employed to predict the magnitude of sunspot activities in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23, based on the monthly averages of sunspot number and the smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number, respectively. Our results show that: (1) the application of smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number gives better and less fluctuating (or more stable) predictions of sunspot activity at the early stage of the cycle than predictions based on monthly averages of sunspot number, and (2) a starting date of October 1996 works better than a starting date of May 1996 for Cycle 23. Both the validity and advantage of Hathaway et al.'s [SoPh 151 (1994) 177] approach are discussed in detail. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Language英语
Subject AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
SubtypeArticle
ISSN1384-1092
URL查看原文
Archive Date2003-09-08
WOS IDWOS:000184662500007
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS KeywordLONG-TERM PREDICTION ; SOLAR-ACTIVITY ; TIME-SERIES ; CYCLE ; SIZE ; AMPLITUDE ; ASYMMETRY ; SHAPE
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Cited Times:4[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6064
Collection太阳物理研究组
Corresponding AuthorZhan, LS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
Affiliation1.Yunnan Observatory, CAS, Kunming 650011, PR China
2.National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, Beijing, China
3.School of Graduates, CAS, Beijing, China
4.Jingdezhen Comprehensive College, Jiangxi, China
First Author AffilicationYunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhan LS,Zhao HJ,Liang HF,et al. Prediction of sunspot numbers in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23[J]. NEW ASTRONOMY,2003,8(5):449-456.
APA Zhan LS,Zhao HJ,Liang HF,&Zhan, LS .(2003).Prediction of sunspot numbers in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23.NEW ASTRONOMY,8(5),449-456.
MLA Zhan LS,et al."Prediction of sunspot numbers in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23".NEW ASTRONOMY 8.5(2003):449-456.
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