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A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23
Li KJ(李可军)1,2; Zhan LS(占腊生)1,2,3,4; Wang, JX2; Liu, XH5; Yun, HS6; Xiong, SY7; Liang HF(梁红飞)1,2; Zhao HJ(赵海娟)1,2; Li, KJ (reprint author), Yunnan Observ, YN-650011 Yunnan, Peoples R China.
发表期刊ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
2002-09
卷号392期号:1页码:301-307
DOI10.1051/0004-6361:20020616
产权排序第1完成单位
收录类别SCI ; EI
关键词Sun : Activity Sun : Sunspots Sun : General
摘要In this paper, we investigate the prospect of using previously occurring sunspot cycle signatures to determine future behavior in an ongoing cycle, with specific application to cycle 23, the current sunspot cycle. We find that the gross level of solar activity (i.e., the sum of the total number of sunspots over the course of a sunspot cycle) associated with cycle 23, based on a comparison of its first several years of activity against similar periods of preceding cycles, is such that cycle 23 best compares to cycle 2. Compared to cycles 2 and 22, respectively, cycle 23 appears 1.08 times larger and 0.75 times as large. Because cycle 2 was of shorter period, we infer that cycle 23 also might be of shorter length (period less than 11 years), ending sometime in late 2006 or early 2007.
语种英语
学科领域Astronomy & Astrophysics
文章类型Article
ISSN0004-6361
URL查看原文
归档日期2002-10-09
WOS记录号WOS:000177868700030
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
WOS类目Astronomy & Astrophysics
关键词[WOS]MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ; BEHAVIOR
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6050
专题太阳物理研究组
通讯作者Li, KJ (reprint author), Yunnan Observ, YN-650011 Yunnan, Peoples R China.
作者单位1.Yunnan Observatory, YN650011, China
2.National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, China
3.Academy of Graduates, CAS, Beijing, China
4.Department of Physics, Jingdezhen Comprehensive College, Jiangxi, China
5.Department of Physics, Jiaozuo Educational College, Henan, China
6.Astronomy Program, SEES, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
7.Library, Yunnan Observatory, Yunnan, China
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GB/T 7714
Li KJ,Zhan LS,Wang, JX,et al. A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23[J]. ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,2002,392(1):301-307.
APA Li KJ.,Zhan LS.,Wang, JX.,Liu, XH.,Yun, HS.,...&Li, KJ .(2002).A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23.ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,392(1),301-307.
MLA Li KJ,et al."A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23".ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS 392.1(2002):301-307.
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