A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23 | |
Li KJ(李可军)1,2; Zhan LS(占腊生)1,2,3,4; Wang, JX2; Liu, XH5; Yun, HS6; Xiong, SY7; Liang HF(梁红飞)1,2; Zhao HJ(赵海娟)1,2 | |
发表期刊 | ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS |
2002-09 | |
卷号 | 392期号:1页码:301-307 |
DOI | 10.1051/0004-6361:20020616 |
产权排序 | 第1完成单位 |
收录类别 | SCI ; EI |
关键词 | Sun : Activity Sun : Sunspots Sun : General |
摘要 | In this paper, we investigate the prospect of using previously occurring sunspot cycle signatures to determine future behavior in an ongoing cycle, with specific application to cycle 23, the current sunspot cycle. We find that the gross level of solar activity (i.e., the sum of the total number of sunspots over the course of a sunspot cycle) associated with cycle 23, based on a comparison of its first several years of activity against similar periods of preceding cycles, is such that cycle 23 best compares to cycle 2. Compared to cycles 2 and 22, respectively, cycle 23 appears 1.08 times larger and 0.75 times as large. Because cycle 2 was of shorter period, we infer that cycle 23 also might be of shorter length (period less than 11 years), ending sometime in late 2006 or early 2007. |
语种 | 英语 |
学科领域 | 天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 |
学科门类 | 理学 ; 理学::天文学 |
文章类型 | Article |
出版者 | E D P SCIENCES |
出版地 | 7, AVE DU HOGGAR, PARC D ACTIVITES COURTABOEUF, BP 112, F-91944 LES ULIS CEDEXA, FRANCE |
ISSN | 0004-6361 |
URL | 查看原文 |
归档日期 | 2002-10-09 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000177868700030 |
WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
WOS类目 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
关键词[WOS] | Maximum Amplitude ; Behavior |
EI入藏号 | 2002407119163 |
EI主题词 | Astrophysics |
EI分类号 | 657.1solar Energy And Phenomena - 657.2extraterrestrial Physics And Stellar Phenomena |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6050 |
专题 | 太阳物理研究组 |
通讯作者 | Li KJ(李可军) |
作者单位 | 1.Yunnan Observatory, YN650011, China 2.National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, China 3.Academy of Graduates, CAS, Beijing, China 4.Department of Physics, Jingdezhen Comprehensive College, Jiangxi, China 5.Department of Physics, Jiaozuo Educational College, Henan, China 6.Astronomy Program, SEES, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea 7.Library, Yunnan Observatory, Yunnan, China |
第一作者单位 | 中国科学院云南天文台 |
通讯作者单位 | 中国科学院云南天文台 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li KJ,Zhan LS,Wang, JX,et al. A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23[J]. ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,2002,392(1):301-307. |
APA | Li KJ.,Zhan LS.,Wang, JX.,Liu, XH.,Yun, HS.,...&Zhao HJ.(2002).A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23.ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,392(1),301-307. |
MLA | Li KJ,et al."A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23".ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS 392.1(2002):301-307. |
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