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A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23
Li KJ(李可军)1,2; Zhan LS(占腊生)1,2,3,4; Wang, JX2; Liu, XH5; Yun, HS6; Xiong, SY7; Liang HF(梁红飞)1,2; Zhao HJ(赵海娟)1,2
发表期刊ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
2002-09
卷号392期号:1页码:301-307
DOI10.1051/0004-6361:20020616
产权排序第1完成单位
收录类别SCI ; EI
关键词Sun : Activity Sun : Sunspots Sun : General
摘要

In this paper, we investigate the prospect of using previously occurring sunspot cycle signatures to determine future behavior in an ongoing cycle, with specific application to cycle 23, the current sunspot cycle. We find that the gross level of solar activity (i.e., the sum of the total number of sunspots over the course of a sunspot cycle) associated with cycle 23, based on a comparison of its first several years of activity against similar periods of preceding cycles, is such that cycle 23 best compares to cycle 2. Compared to cycles 2 and 22, respectively, cycle 23 appears 1.08 times larger and 0.75 times as large. Because cycle 2 was of shorter period, we infer that cycle 23 also might be of shorter length (period less than 11 years), ending sometime in late 2006 or early 2007.

语种英语
学科领域天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系
学科门类理学 ; 理学::天文学
文章类型Article
出版者E D P SCIENCES
出版地7, AVE DU HOGGAR, PARC D ACTIVITES COURTABOEUF, BP 112, F-91944 LES ULIS CEDEXA, FRANCE
ISSN0004-6361
URL查看原文
归档日期2002-10-09
WOS记录号WOS:000177868700030
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
WOS类目Astronomy & Astrophysics
关键词[WOS]Maximum Amplitude ; Behavior
EI入藏号2002407119163
EI主题词Astrophysics
EI分类号657.1solar Energy And Phenomena - 657.2extraterrestrial Physics And Stellar Phenomena
引用统计
被引频次:12[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6050
专题太阳物理研究组
通讯作者Li KJ(李可军)
作者单位1.Yunnan Observatory, YN650011, China
2.National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, China
3.Academy of Graduates, CAS, Beijing, China
4.Department of Physics, Jingdezhen Comprehensive College, Jiangxi, China
5.Department of Physics, Jiaozuo Educational College, Henan, China
6.Astronomy Program, SEES, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
7.Library, Yunnan Observatory, Yunnan, China
第一作者单位中国科学院云南天文台
通讯作者单位中国科学院云南天文台
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GB/T 7714
Li KJ,Zhan LS,Wang, JX,et al. A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23[J]. ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,2002,392(1):301-307.
APA Li KJ.,Zhan LS.,Wang, JX.,Liu, XH.,Yun, HS.,...&Zhao HJ.(2002).A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23.ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,392(1),301-307.
MLA Li KJ,et al."A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23".ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS 392.1(2002):301-307.
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