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A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23
Li KJ(李可军)1,2; Zhan LS(占腊生)1,2,3,4; Wang, JX2; Liu, XH5; Yun, HS6; Xiong, SY7; Liang HF(梁红飞)1,2; Zhao HJ(赵海娟)1,2
Source PublicationASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
2002-09
Volume392Issue:1Pages:301-307
DOI10.1051/0004-6361:20020616
Contribution Rank第1完成单位
Indexed BySCI ; EI
KeywordSun : Activity Sun : Sunspots Sun : General
Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the prospect of using previously occurring sunspot cycle signatures to determine future behavior in an ongoing cycle, with specific application to cycle 23, the current sunspot cycle. We find that the gross level of solar activity (i.e., the sum of the total number of sunspots over the course of a sunspot cycle) associated with cycle 23, based on a comparison of its first several years of activity against similar periods of preceding cycles, is such that cycle 23 best compares to cycle 2. Compared to cycles 2 and 22, respectively, cycle 23 appears 1.08 times larger and 0.75 times as large. Because cycle 2 was of shorter period, we infer that cycle 23 also might be of shorter length (period less than 11 years), ending sometime in late 2006 or early 2007.

Language英语
Subject Area天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系
MOST Discipline Catalogue理学 ; 理学::天文学
SubtypeArticle
PublisherE D P SCIENCES
Publication Place7, AVE DU HOGGAR, PARC D ACTIVITES COURTABOEUF, BP 112, F-91944 LES ULIS CEDEXA, FRANCE
ISSN0004-6361
URL查看原文
Archive Date2002-10-09
WOS IDWOS:000177868700030
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS KeywordMaximum Amplitude ; Behavior
EI Accession Number2002407119163
EI KeywordsAstrophysics
EI Classification Number657.1solar Energy And Phenomena - 657.2extraterrestrial Physics And Stellar Phenomena
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6050
Collection太阳物理研究组
Corresponding AuthorLi KJ(李可军)
Affiliation1.Yunnan Observatory, YN650011, China
2.National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, China
3.Academy of Graduates, CAS, Beijing, China
4.Department of Physics, Jingdezhen Comprehensive College, Jiangxi, China
5.Department of Physics, Jiaozuo Educational College, Henan, China
6.Astronomy Program, SEES, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
7.Library, Yunnan Observatory, Yunnan, China
First Author AffilicationYunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Corresponding Author AffilicationYunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li KJ,Zhan LS,Wang, JX,et al. A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23[J]. ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,2002,392(1):301-307.
APA Li KJ.,Zhan LS.,Wang, JX.,Liu, XH.,Yun, HS.,...&Zhao HJ.(2002).A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23.ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,392(1),301-307.
MLA Li KJ,et al."A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23".ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS 392.1(2002):301-307.
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