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Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25
Li FY(李富羽)1,2,3,4; Kong DF(孔德芳)1,3,4; Xie JL(谢婧岚)1,3,4; Xiang NB(向南彬)1,3,4; Xu JC(徐景晨)1,2,3,4
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS
2018-12
Volume181Pages:110-115
DOI10.1016/j.jastp.2018.10.014
Contribution Rank第1完成单位
Indexed BySCI ; EI
KeywordSunspots Methods: Statistical
Abstract

The Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) issued a new version (version 2) of the sunspot number data in July 2015. The 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number from the new version is used for the first time to research the relations among the feature parameters of solar cycles under the bimodal distribution for the modern era cycles (10-23), and, their physical implications are discussed. These relations are utilized to predict the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25. Cycle 25 is predicted to start in October 2020 and reach its maximum amplitude of 168.5 +/- 16.3 in October 2024, thus, it should be stronger than cycle 24 but weaker than cycle 23.

Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[11573065] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11633008] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11703085] ; Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories ; Chinese Academy of Sciences
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China[11573065, 11633008, 11703085] ; Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories ; Chinese Academy of Sciences
Language英语
Subject Area天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 ; 太阳物理学
MOST Discipline Catalogue理学 ; 理学::天文学
SubtypeArticle
PublisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Publication PlaceTHE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
ISSN1364-6826
URL查看原文
WOS IDWOS:000452936100003
WOS Research AreaGeochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectGeochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS KeywordSUNSPOT-NUMBER ; MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ; MERIDIONAL FLOW ; BIMODALITY ; MODEL ; SIZE ; TIME
EI Accession Number20184706106849
EI KeywordsSolar Energy
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/18433
Collection太阳物理研究组
Corresponding AuthorLi FY(李富羽)
Affiliation1.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650011, China
2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
3.State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China
4.Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, Beijing, 100012, China
First Author AffilicationYunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Corresponding Author AffilicationYunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li FY,Kong DF,Xie JL,et al. Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25[J]. JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS,2018,181:110-115.
APA Li FY,Kong DF,Xie JL,Xiang NB,&Xu JC.(2018).Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25.JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS,181,110-115.
MLA Li FY,et al."Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25".JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS 181(2018):110-115.
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