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Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25
Li FY(李富羽)1,2,3,4; Kong DF(孔德芳)1,3,4; Xie JL(谢婧岚)1,3,4; Xiang NB(向南彬)1,3,4; Xu JC(徐景晨)1,2,3,4
发表期刊JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS
2018-12
卷号181页码:110-115
DOI10.1016/j.jastp.2018.10.014
产权排序第1完成单位
收录类别SCI ; EI
关键词Sunspots Methods: Statistical
摘要

The Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) issued a new version (version 2) of the sunspot number data in July 2015. The 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number from the new version is used for the first time to research the relations among the feature parameters of solar cycles under the bimodal distribution for the modern era cycles (10-23), and, their physical implications are discussed. These relations are utilized to predict the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25. Cycle 25 is predicted to start in October 2020 and reach its maximum amplitude of 168.5 +/- 16.3 in October 2024, thus, it should be stronger than cycle 24 but weaker than cycle 23.

资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[11573065] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11633008] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11703085] ; Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories ; Chinese Academy of Sciences
项目资助者National Natural Science Foundation of China[11573065, 11633008, 11703085] ; Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories ; Chinese Academy of Sciences
语种英语
学科领域天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 ; 太阳物理学
学科门类理学 ; 理学::天文学
文章类型Article
出版者PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
出版地THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
ISSN1364-6826
URL查看原文
WOS记录号WOS:000452936100003
WOS研究方向Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
关键词[WOS]SUNSPOT-NUMBER ; MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ; MERIDIONAL FLOW ; BIMODALITY ; MODEL ; SIZE ; TIME
EI入藏号20184706106849
EI主题词Solar Energy
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/18433
专题太阳物理研究组
通讯作者Li FY(李富羽)
作者单位1.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650011, China
2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
3.State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China
4.Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, Beijing, 100012, China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Li FY,Kong DF,Xie JL,et al. Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25[J]. JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS,2018,181:110-115.
APA Li FY,Kong DF,Xie JL,Xiang NB,&Xu JC.(2018).Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25.JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS,181,110-115.
MLA Li FY,et al."Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25".JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS 181(2018):110-115.
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