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Alternative TitlePrediction and analysis about the 2016 Italy M6 strong earthquake
郭广猛1; 姜永涛1; 胡辉2
Source Publication地球物理学进展(Progress in Geophysics)
Contribution Rank第2完成单位
Indexed ByCSCD ; 核心
Keyword可公度 意大利 地震预测


Other Abstract

Commensurability is a method to predict the occurrence year of natural disaster. In this paper we use this method to study seismic activity in Italy and try to predict the next strong earthquake year of Italy. The traditional method uses all the quakes within research area to make commensurability analysis, here we propose a new method to select or abandon some quakes. The earthquake data of Italy is divided into 4 different situations based on the epicenter depth and the strikes of faults systems, and then commensurability analysis is made for each situation respectively, finally a summary for all the situations is made and the result shows that 2016 is the most dangerous year for M6 strong quakes. For the epicenter location prediction, we find that the earthquakes in Italy show some migration law, namely the first quake happened in middle Italy in 1997, south Italy in 2002, middle Italy in 2009, and then north Italy in 2012, so we consider that the next strong quake will back to middle or south Italy. This prediction was sent to the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in January 2016. The fact is M6.2 earthquake hit middle Italy in August 2016 and this verifies our prediction. The retrospective analysis shows that the seismic activity of Italy is also conformed to the 7 years cycle and the law of golden ratio, for example a M6.3 quake occur in 2009, and 2009 plus 7 years is 2016, which shows the same result as that derived from commensurability analysis. The combination use of commensurability method and earthquake cycle method will increase the reliability of earthquake prediction, and provides a possibility that reducing the temporal error into several months.

Funding Project国家自然科学基金项目[41071280] ; 河南省自然科学基金[182300410141] ; 南阳师范学院博士专项[ZX2016007]
Funding Organization国家自然科学基金项目[41071280] ; 河南省自然科学基金[182300410141] ; 南阳师范学院博士专项[ZX2016007]
Subject Area地震学
MOST Discipline Catalogue理学 ; 理学::地球物理学
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Affiliation1.南阳师范学院卫星遥感中心, 河南, 南阳, 473061
2.中国科学院云南天文台, 云南, 昆明, 650011
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
郭广猛,姜永涛,胡辉. 基于可公度和三性法对2016年意大利6级强震的预测和分析[J]. 地球物理学进展(Progress in Geophysics),2019,34(2):423-427.
APA 郭广猛,姜永涛,&胡辉.(2019).基于可公度和三性法对2016年意大利6级强震的预测和分析.地球物理学进展(Progress in Geophysics),34(2),423-427.
MLA 郭广猛,et al."基于可公度和三性法对2016年意大利6级强震的预测和分析".地球物理学进展(Progress in Geophysics) 34.2(2019):423-427.
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